Why Iraq ought to construct bridges with its ‘new’ neighbor, Syria

Uncover insights within the NFT area. This article dives into: “Why Iraq should build bridges with its ‘new’ neighbor, Syria”.

Since the opposition ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Western powers have cautiously embraced Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa because the nation’s new official chief. The new Syrian authorities, consisting of technocrats and high-profile former dissidents of the Assad regime, is actively reaching out to worldwide actors in a quest to rebuild bridges.

The Syrian president’s diplomatic visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Jordan, France, and Turkey appeared auspicious and held promising potential. However, his potential in-person attendance on the Arab Summit in individual was the middle of some controversy.

Baghdad’s place on the fast developments in Syria is cut up between two camps: The official authorities and that of the highly effective non-state actors.

The Iraqi authorities’s preliminary response to Syria was cautious, together with the closure of border crossings and the deployment of troops to the 630-kilometer border with Syria. But Baghdad slowly shifted in the direction of a extra pragmatic method and finally despatched its officers on formal visits to Syria, in a transfer that acknowledged the legitimacy of the brand new regime. These efforts culminated with the Iraqi prime minister’s April assembly with al-Sharaa in Doha, the place he prolonged a proper invitation to the Arab Summit, which Baghdad hosted in mid-May.

Alternatively, Iran-affiliates in Iraq have vocally opposed such normalization efforts. Over fifty members of the Iraqi parliament, lots of whom have shut ties to the Shiite Coordination Framework, signed a petition to reject al-Sharaa’s Baghdad go to, and parliament member Mustafa Sanad even organized a protest towards his presence on the summit. Additionally, militia leaders corresponding to Qais al-Khazaali and Abu Ali al-Askari, who command militia teams that had been energetic in Syria till lately, posted direct threats on their X accounts in the direction of the Syrian president. Media platforms with Iranian affiliations have been working in parallel with politicians to advertise a disinformation marketing campaign about al-Sharaa’s felony document in Iraq, by issuing faux paperwork and tampered proof of incarceration.

Iraqi militias have an extended historical past of hostility in the direction of a number of the Sunni militant teams with which al-Sharaa was concerned in earlier years. These Islamist Jihadist teams rose to energy in Iraq in 2014 and took over one third of Iraqi territories, subsequently the liberation of those areas was a prolonged and expensive course of for the Iraqis. Iraqi militias proceed to make use of the identical justification for his or her navy intervention in Syria up to now years, which is the necessity to “protect” holy Shiite websites, and proceed to insist that it stays a urgent challenge even beneath the brand new regime.

Quiet hostilities and alliance of necessity

Under Baathist management, Syria had longstanding grievances with Iraq. Before the spark of turmoil in Syria, for instance, Iraq’s former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki had accused Assad of sending militants and terrorists into the nation. But financial ties, partially because of the motion of 1.2 million Iraqi refugees into Syria through the early aughts, softened hostilities. During this era, financial commerce between Syria and Iraq reached its peak at 4 billion US {dollars} yearly. At the time, 60 p.c of Iraq’s imports got here from Syria.

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But this dynamic shifted drastically after 2011 with the eruption of the Arab Spring and the anti-Assad rebellion in Syria. Iran seized the chance to dealer a brand new relationship between the 2 nations, the place political and safety pursuits had been tied and emphasised, and sectarian fault traces had been intentionally exploited. Iraqi militias, together with Iranian forces and the Assad regime, took half in suppressing the rebels’ seizure of Syrian cities throughout these years. Over fifteen Iraqi militias, with simply over 75,000 fighters, had been estimated to have participated in battles in Syria over 13 years. In parallel, Iraqi territories offered a protected land hall for Iranian reinforcement and personnel touring to Syria, and three home drug trafficking corridors from Syria and Iran to neighboring nations.

Economic relations endured regardless of the safety shakeup. Even after 2011, Iraq continued to import agricultural merchandise from Syria along with meals, textiles, plastic items, drugs, and plenty of different commodities. Syrian merchandise comprised 80 p.c of Iraqi markets; nonetheless, this share declined to solely 5 p.c after December 2024.

The new actuality and future prospects

Iraq underutilized its agricultural capability for years and depended on Syria for meals safety. By solidifying financial relations with the brand new Syria by way of commerce agreements, transportation infrastructure, and significant investments, Iraq can additional multiply the fruits of cooperation and assure water, meals, and gasoline safety. 

Since the historic overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, Baghdad has despatched three delegations with high-profile officers to satisfy with officers from the brand new authorities in Damascus.

The newest, in April, held the best significance and marked the brand new Iraqi pragmatist method to the current developments with its neighbor. It included extra specialised Iraqi officers like the pinnacle of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service, together with representatives from the Department of Border Enforcement, the Ministry of Trade, and the Ministry of Oil.

This delegation straight addressed financial pursuits in Syria, most notably the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline. Iraq presently exports oil by way of Basra Sea ports, land, and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. However, resuming operations on a direct pipeline to the Mediterranean would lead to substantial financial beneficial properties, rising Iraq’s oil export capability by 300,000 Bpd. Negotiating entry for Iraq to the Syrian Mediterranean ports will diversify Iraq’s choices in commerce and the worldwide provide chain. It can even lower the prices of importing European items and commodities to Iraq and different elements of the area.

Meanwhile, because the West slowly opens as much as the brand new Syrian authorities, Iraq also needs to participate within the nation’s efforts to rebuild as an influential neighbor. Iraq’s vitality sector, specifically, is an institutionalized and mature one, and Iraq’s nationwide oil corporations can supply their investments in Syria’s pure sources. Iran’s energy decline within the area not solely left a political vacuum however additionally an financial one, too. And as Tehran’s expenditures in Syria ranged from thirty billion US {dollars} to above fifty billion {dollars}, and Iranian investments value a whole bunch of tens of millions of {dollars} had been beneath building on the time of regime change.

Additionally, Iraq hosts between 800 thousand to one million overseas staff, lots of whom switch their earnings in {dollars} again to their house nations— largely southeast Asia—draining eight billion US {dollars} of overseas forex. Baghdad now has a golden alternative to strengthen each its economic system and regional ties by facilitating the authorized entry and employment of Syrian staff into the personal sector. As a supply of reasonably priced and expert labor, Syrian staff will help meet home labor calls for within the personal sector, whereas their earnings, reinvested into the Syrian economic system, can additional deepen financial interdependence between the 2 nations.

The safety query

However, stability should come first earlier than financial prosperity.

While the worldwide discourse is concentrated on minority rights and power-sharing ensures, Iraq and Syria have a deeper understanding of the safety challenges which might be distinctive to them. The Iraqi-Syrian border witnessed the rise and fall of extremist teams that had been behind a number of the deadliest conflicts for civilians in recent times. The Iraqi authorities failed for years to safe the porous border with Syria and management illicit financial actions that thrived on the susceptible periphery. Furthermore, the northern elements of each nations have suffered spillover results of battle between their neighbor, Turkey, and Kurdish insurgent teams.

After the worldwide coalition towards the Islamic State (ISIS) efficiently defeated the militant group, al-Hol jail and related camps remoted ISIS households and the remnants from their surrounding populations. This ended up dragging many harmless civilians into these enclosures, together with three thousand lacking Yazidi girls and women who’re believed to be entrapped on this camp and whose state of affairs stays a urgent challenge. Moreover, two thousand Assadist troopers fled to Iraq within the first few hours of the regime’s fall, and had been later returned to Syria by the Iraqi authorities.

Such incidents are more likely to proceed in Syria’s transitional interval and might solely be combated by way of cooperation with Iraq. Lastly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s express feedback about dividing Syria into 4 administrations to determine a so-called ‘David’s Corridor’ pose a direct menace to Iraq’s border integrity and inside safety. Iraq—amongst different regional actors—should set up a joint method to refute this hole and short-sighted political agenda. A fragmented Syria dangers changing into a persistent epicenter of regional instability.

Policy suggestions for the Iraqi authorities

At this turning level within the area’s historical past, Iraq has a uncommon alternative to start out a brand new chapter with Syria.

Welcoming the Syrian president in Baghdad to the Arab Summit might have served as the primary sensible step in the direction of a brand new relationship, however this was not achieved attributable to steady militia intimidation.  The threats made by non-state actors resulted within the withdrawals and cancellations of many heads of state from the summit, together with al-Sharaa, and as a substitute despatched low-level delegations. The Iraqi authorities ought to implement mechanisms to manage and maintain accountable militias and different non-state actors whose public positions contradict official state coverage and danger undermining Iraq’s diplomatic relations.

Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa attends an interview with Reuters on the presidential palace in Damascus, Syria, March 10, 2025. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi

Opening efficient channels of communication between the Iraqi and Syrian governments will likely be vital in efforts to stabilize and normalize. The Iraqi authorities ought to proceed with common, high-profile official visits to Syria. This will guarantee Iraq’s enter in vital and strategic choices confronted by the Syrian authorities and assure a seat on the transition desk.

These communications needs to be inclusive past authorities officers and lengthen to civil society, native communities, and tribal or non secular leaders. In the midst of the present storm of misinformation and disinformation across the state of affairs in Syria, granular relationships will assist native communities adapt and reply to fast transitions, particularly with inhabitants motion and voluntary return of refugees.

To actually deepen a partnership between the 2 nations, Iraq also needs to work carefully with the brand new Syrian regime to determine a high-level safety cooperation, together with instant investments in border crossings and cities, to stop the resurgence of extremist teams and smuggling actions throughout the joint border. These areas had been uncared for and beneath non-state actors’ management for years, and authorities takeover will imply a regulated, taxed, and monitored motion of products and vacationers.

And to allow prosperity after making certain safety, Baghdad ought to proceed to determine financial alternatives and solidify them with memoranda of understanding, commerce agreements, and funding offers. In the six months because the regime change in Syria, there was a big funding momentum and capital curiosity from regional and worldwide actors. Therefore, supporting the Syrian-Iraqi enterprise council has change into a urgent necessity, because the efforts to rebuild Syria are mounting by way of direct overseas investments, as the Syrian economic system recovers after lifting the sanctions. Feedback from businessmen on either side will present enter on market gaps, demand potential, stakeholder engagement, trade traits, and commerce dynamics. All of which can be utilized as a blueprint for financial cooperation.

Part of this image ought to embrace Baghdad legalizing the standing of Syrians who want to keep in Iraq as a part of the labor pressure. Iraq’s Ministry of Labor ought to create a authorized framework to incentivize Syrian expert staff’ employment within the Iraqi personal sector. Doing so will curb the inflow of undocumented and unregulated immigrant staff from exterior the area, restrict overseas forex outflow, and meet the personal sector employment wants.

Over the previous 13 years, Iraq’s function in Syria has been marked by hardship and complexity. Now, the present Iraqi administration holds the chance to show a brand new web page and assist form a future outlined by peace and regional cooperation.

Shermine Serbest is an Iraqi researcher and worldwide relations analyst. She leads many data-focused tasks overlaying Iraq, Iran, and the Middle East, specializing in misinformation and disinformation and the political economic system.

Further studying

Image: Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Bahrululum meets with Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Hassan al-Shibani forward of the thirty fourth Arab League summit, in Baghdad, Iraq on May 16, 2025. Murtadha AL-Sudani/Pool through REUTERS

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