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Assessing the fallout from Israel’s extraordinary assault on Iran
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Assessing the fallout from Israel’s extraordinary assault on Iran
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Assessing the fallout from Israel’s extraordinary assault on Iran – Atlantic Council
GET UP TO SPEED
The Natanz nuclear web site severely broken. Dozens of Iranian army leaders and nuclear scientists killed. A area on a knife’s edge. Israel’s extraordinary army operation towards Iran early Friday within the Middle East marks one other main turning level for a area that has been experiencing dizzying upheaval since Hamas’s assault towards Israel on October 7, 2023. As Iran responded with a wave of drones and Israel continued to hit army and nuclear websites on Friday, we turned to our consultants to evaluate the fallout.
TODAY’S EXPERT REACTION BROUGHT TO YOU BY
- Daniel B. Shapiro (@DanielBShapiro): Distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former US ambassador to Israel
- Kirsten Fontenrose: Nonresident senior fellow on the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former senior director for the Gulf on the US National Security Council
- Shalom Lipner (@shalomlipner): Jerusalem-based nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former advisor to seven Israeli prime ministers
- William Wechsler (@WillWechsler): Senior director of the Council’s Middle East Programs and former US deputy assistant secretary of protection for particular operations and combatting terrorism
Attack mode
- With these strikes, “Israel demonstrated its full penetration of Iran, and ability to wreak havoc across the Iranian system,” Dan tells us. “Iran has never looked weaker, and its ability to respond meaningfully will be tested.”
- Recent reassurances by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to political leaders that the nation’s “air defenses could withstand an Israeli strike” could have led Iran to conclude that it may slow-walk nuclear negotiations past US President Donald Trump’s two-month deadline, Kirsten notes. That, in flip, could have led Israel to conclude that it was time to strike. “The generals behind those white lies were the first targets” of Israel’s operation, she factors out.
- Filing from Jerusalem, Shalom says Israeli leaders seem to have approved the operation after concluding that Iran “was on the threshold of a dangerous breakthrough in its efforts to acquire a nuclear weapons capability.”
- Israel “took advantage of a rapidly shrinking window for military action, before relevant Iranian infrastructure became too advanced or well-protected,” Shalom provides. The widespread assumption that Israel wouldn’t make any army strikes till after this weekend’s scheduled US-Iranian talks in Oman additionally “narrowed the opportunity for any element of surprise.”
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Tehran’s subsequent strikes
- In the hours after Israel’s assault, Iran fired multiple hundred drones towards Israel, although the Israel Defense Forces stated it was capable of intercept lots of them. That received’t be the final phrase. “Iran’s reaction likely will include both direct attacks on Israel and retaliation via its remaining proxy groups,” Will predicts, although “the obedience of some of those proxies is in question,” notably amid reviews that Hezbollah is not going to bounce into the battle.
- While the primary spherical of Israeli strikes seems to have brought about important harm to the Natanz nuclear facility, that’s not the one place the place Iran was enriching uranium. “Iran will now be supremely motivated to sprint to a nuclear breakout at hardened, underground facilities,” Dan warns.
- Kirsten is retaining an in depth eye on the area’s Arab states, which have been topic to “tug-of-war diplomacy” between the United States, which would love them to as soon as once more assist defend towards Iranian retaliation, and Iran, which would favor they give the impression of being the opposite method.
- Shooting down Iranian projectiles that cross their airspace “is such a no-brainer that the United States would likely conclude that any munitions not reported or mitigated by Arab states were intentionally ignored,” Kirsten says. “Neither the United States nor its Arab partners want that kind of tension to arise.”
Wartime Washington
- On Thursday night time in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a press release making clear that Israel was appearing unilaterally and the United States was “not involved.” By Friday morning, nonetheless, Trump was telling ABC News that Israel’s strike was “excellent” and warning Iran that there’s “more to come.”
- The United States might be pulled into the warfare through assaults by Iran or its proxy forces on US personnel within the area, Will tells us. Alternatively, if Israel’s assaults towards Iranian nuclear services show ineffective and as a substitute “provide Tehran with an excuse to race toward developing nuclear weapons, then US officials may conclude that their only option is to use military force to prevent this worst-case scenario.”
- Such a call may “split [Trump’s] advisers and political base, amid accusations, and perhaps his own misgivings” that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is attempting to drag him into war,” Dan observes. In any case, “Trump’s dream of a diplomatic resolution that ends Iranian [nuclear] enrichment appears dead.”
- Given “his strong objection to the US becoming involved in another war in the Middle East,” it might be “deeply ironic” for Trump to be drawn into one other presidency-defining battle, Will says. “At times like these, there is no substitute for Washington exercising decisive leadership, rather than waiting to be at the mercy of decisions made by others.”
Further studying
Related Experts:
Daniel B. Shapiro,
Kirsten Fontenrose,
Shalom Lipner, and
William F. Wechsler
Image: Rescuers work on the web site of a broken constructing, within the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Iranian Red Crescent Society/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout through Reuters.
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